Maha polls: Opposition may not gain from saffron rebellion in Aurangabad

After winning six of the nine seats in Aurangabad district in 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena alliance is facing rebellion and infighting among its functionaries this time. While the Sena is facing rebellion from a BJP turncoat in Aurangabad West, its candidate Abdul Sattar is finding it difficult to gather support from local workers and leaders of the two parties in Sillod. However, the Opposition parties — the Congress, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), or even the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) — are unlikely to benefit as they have their own share of troubles in the constituency, believe political observers.

The BJP and Sena had won three seats each in the 2014 Assembly polls, while the Congress, NCP and AIMIM had bagged one seat each in Aurangabad district. The district, known for the Dalit movement, also witnessed the beginning of the Maratha reservation protest in Aurangabad city in 2016. Around four years ago, the district also saw the emergence of the AIMIM, elected as main Opposition party in the Aurangabad civic body. The party is now contesting 44 seats across the state. The consolidation of the Dalit and Muslim votes in favour of the alliance of AIMIM and Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) in the Lok Sabha polls had dented the prospects of other candidates in Aurangabad and Marathwada. However, as the two parties are not together this time, it is likely to result in a split in Dalit and Muslim votes, putting the prospects of both parties in uncertainty.

Among the nine seats in the district, the contest in Sillod, Kannad and Aurangabad West seats are in the limelight for various reasons. The Sena has fielded Sattar from Sillod while all other parties have joined hands against him. A former state minister, Sattar was the Congress’s only MLA from the district to have won in 2014. He deserted the party during the LS polls and joined the BJP later. However, Sena workers are not too keen to support Sattar, terming him an outsider. BJP leaders, too, have declined to work for Sattar as they are unhappy that their party conceded their traditional seat to the Sena. The Congress has put its weight behind independent candidate Prabhakar Palodkar, though its official candidate is Kaisar Azad. The split in Muslim votes is expected to benefit Palodkar, a former Congress leader, though the party hasn’t been able pose a strong challenge to Sattar.

In Kannad, former Sena MLA Harshavardhan Jadhav is now fighting as an Independent against Sena’s Udaysinh Rajput and NCP’s Santosh Kolhe. Jadhav, the son-in-law of Union minister and BJP leader Raosaheb Danve, had bagged 2.83 lakh votes in the LS polls as an Independent, and received strong support from the Maratha community, said political observers. The Sena had alleged that Danve had lent tacit support to his son-in-law then. The ambiguity between the two ruling parties in Kannad continues in this election too, which may damage the prospect of Sena’s Rajput, who was defeated by just 1,561 votes by Jadhav in the 2014 Assembly polls.

In Aurangabad city, the AIMIM had made its entry in the state Assembly polls by winning the Aurangabad Central seat in 2014. Its MLA Imtiyaaz Jaleel is now an MP from Aurangabad. The party candidate, Naserruddin Taquiuddin Siddioqui, however, is finding it difficult to retain the seat as Sena’s Pradeep Jaiswal has got support from BJPs’ Kishanchand Tanwani, who had fought against him in 2014. The NCP has fielded a Muslim candidate, while Javed Qureshi, a key AIMIM leader, is unhappy for not a getting seat.

“In Aurangabad East, BJP’s Atul Save is facing the AIMIM challenge as the Congress and VBA have not fielded their candidates. However, Dalits are not ready to accept the AIMIM candidate there after the split with VBA. Save, as a state minister, has introduced a few schemes in his constituency, which may help him. Aurangabad West has been facing rebellion by BJP leader Raju Shinde against Sena’s Sanjay Shirsat. Congress candidate’s nomination was rejected. This may affect the Sena’s prospect, giving an edge to AIMIM,” said Dinkar Mane, head of communication and journalism department of Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar Marathwada University. Jaleel said, “It is true that we could’ve done much better had we fought with VBA, but we hope to win all three seats in the city.”

Meanwhile, legislative Assembly speaker Haribhau Bagde is contesting from Phulambri against Congress’s Kalyan Kale.“Being 74, he will also benefit from the sympathy of voters as this may be his last election,” said a BJP leader from the constituency. In Paithan and Gangapur, the ruling alliance fielded sitting MLAs Sandipan Bhumare (Sena) and Prashant Bamb (BJP), who may find it easy to get re-elected in the absence of any prominent opposition. While the NCP has fielded Abhay Chikatgaonkar in place of his uncle and sitting MLA Bhausaheb Chikatgaonkar, the party is batting on the seat to keep its presence alive in the district.

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