From 17 to 130 days, doubling time of Covid-19 cases slows down in Chandigarh

The health department has said that the doubling time of the new Covid-19 cases in the city has improved to 130 days from 17 days in mid-August.

The doubling time is the number of days required for the number of cases in an epidemic to double, based on the rate of the cumulative increase in the number of cases, giving doctors an estimate of the current rate of virus spread.

On September 16, when active cases peaked at 3,141, the doubling time was 19 days. At the national level, India’s doubling time has increased sharply to 70.4 days from 25.5 days in mid-August.

Higher doubling time suggests slowdown in spread of infection .

Steeper decline

“The doubling rate has increased manifold in comparison to last month. This is the trend in the whole country, though it’s more pronounced in Chandigarh as the decline is steeper,” said Arun Gupta, health secretary.

However, news on the fatalities was grim with 45 deaths reported in October, totalling 22% of the deaths (207) reported so far, pushing up the rate from 1.36 % to 1.52% as calculated between October 1 and October 16.

September, however, had the worst record with 106 (51%) of total deaths, 67 reported in the last two weeks as against 39 in the first two weeks of September.

Dr VK Nagpal, joint director, health department, said all the health facilities had recorded fatalities and that patients were given the best possible medical care.

Fatalities among September cases

“Patients undergoing treatment from the last 10 to 20 days could not survive so that is increasing the numbers, but not that significantly. It is not that the patients were diagnosed yesterday and could not survive. Majority of deaths are being reported among the patients who were admitted in late September or so,” Dr Nagpal said.

Staff from local dispensaries had been roped in to keep an eye on patients under home isolation.

The health staff which works in the dispensaries and the hospital staff in Manimajra, Sector 22 and Sector 45 is looking after the patients in home isolation. A particular health worker has been assigned a designated area to check on positive patients through phone and also make personal visits to check the vitals, Dr Nagpal added.

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