Pune: Next month critical, Covid-19 cases set to rise and then stabilise, say xperts

More than 2.8 lakh people have been tested in Pune, including in areas under PMC, PCMC, Cantonments and Pune rural, and as many as 58,027 have been confirmed positive till Wednesday morning.




According to experts of infectious diseases and critical care, next month will be a critical one for local authorities, as the number of Covid-19 cases in Pune is set to rise and then stabilise. Most doctors have also busted the myth of no recovery once the Covid-19 patient is on ventilator support and pointed out that such patients have a good survival rate.

More than 2.8 lakh people have been tested in Pune, including in areas under PMC, PCMC, Cantonments and Pune rural, and as many as 58,027 have been confirmed positive till Wednesday morning. A total of 1,455 deaths have been recorded and, according to District Collector Naval Kishore Ram, the maximum number of samples, 13,000, was tested on July 21.

There are over 800 critical patients across various hospitals, and infectious disease experts said they have seen an increasing number of patients requiring oxygenated beds and ICU beds.

Dr Urvi Shukla, critical care physician at Symbiosis Hospital, told The Indian Express that there has been a definite increase in the number of patients in the last 10 days and on any given day, the hospital receives between seven to 10 calls requesting an ICU bed with a ventilator.

With higher numbers being tested, there has been a proportional increase in the number of patients seeking hospitalisation. “Community transmission has begun a long time ago as most of our patients did not have a history of travelling abroad and can’t remember any high-risk person they may have come in contact with,” said Dr Shukla.

Dr Shivakumar Iyer, professor and head of the department of critical care medicine at Bharati Hospital, said the pandemic is following the charted path and Pune is seeing a surge in cases. “But, with all due efforts taken by the administration to increase bed strength, we will be better prepared to handle new cases. Doctors are beginning to understand how to use treatment strategies for Covid-19,” said Dr Iyer.

Dr Kapil Zirpe, head of the neuro trauma unit at Ruby Hall Clinic, where more than 1,000 Covid-10 patients have been treated, said the current rate of improvement of critically ill patients was satisfactory. “… There is a myth that there is no recovery of ventilated patients. However, we see a good survival rate of ventilated patients and it is important for people not to panic,” said Dr Zirpe.

“There is a sense of security that the hospital is nearby and there will be a medical check-up if anything goes wrong,” said Dr Sanjay Pathare, medical director at Ruby Hall Clinic.

Dr Subhash Salunkhe, chairperson of the Maharashtra Communicable Diseases’ Prevention and Control Technical Committee, appealed people to follow social distancing norms and measures like wearing masks. “I am hopeful that Pune will recover… the next month is going to be crucial as cases may not immediately rise after the lockdown, but we will see an increase within the next fortnight,” said Dr Salunkhe.

Need 2.15 lakh litres of oxygen daily: Pune ZP CEO

In a review meeting on Wednesday, Pune Zilla Parishad (ZP) CEO Ayush Prasad said there is a daily requirement of 2.15 lakh litres of oxygen in Pune rural areas. The administration has identified 1,600 oxygenated beds across 13 tehsils, including Manchar, Chakan, Narayangaon, Yavat, Daund, Indapur and Jejuri. Prasad has also pursued the task of identifying vacancies across rural hospitals and primary health centres. Of the 1,489 vacancies, a total of 521 medical staff have been appointed, ZP health officials told The Indian Express.

Meanwhile, PMC has been able to add 11 ICU beds at Naidu Hospital and 10 at Dalvi Hospital, including 50 oxygenated beds, while another 50 oxygenated beds are available at Khedekar hospital at Bopodi, said Dr Ramchandra Hankare, chief medical officer at Pune Municipal Corporation.

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